Vol. I, No. 19
Covering 28 August - 10 September 2023
Monday, September 11, 2023
Late edition · A Relentless publication
All the fortnight that mattered, in technology and in the world, read next to what we were building at the time.
MOROCCO

An earthquake in the High Atlas kills thousands, and the mountain villages wait for help that struggles to climb to them

The strongest quake to hit Morocco in living memory struck at night, in villages of stone and mud on roads too broken to drive. The rescue is a race up the mountains against the clock.

A magnitude 6.8 earthquake struck the High Atlas mountains south of Marrakesh late on the night of September 8, the most powerful to hit Morocco in more than a century, killing more than 2,900 people with the toll still climbing. It struck where the country was least able to withstand it: remote villages of rammed earth and stone, perched on mountainsides, built long before any seismic code and connected to the world by roads that the quake itself then blocked with rockfall. Marrakesh's old city, a UNESCO site, was damaged; but the dying was in the mountains, in hamlets where entire families were buried as their homes folded, and where, days later, rescuers and journalists were still reaching settlements that had received no help at all.

The tragedy has the shape this paper has come to know too well. The buildings that killed people were the ones nobody had the money or the mandate to make safe; the warning, in the general sense that these mountains sit on a fault and their houses could not survive it, existed in every seismologist's assessment and reached none of the people asleep inside them. Morocco's government, wary and centralised, was slow to accept foreign help, formally taking aid from only a handful of countries in the first days while offers poured in from the rest, a decision that will be argued over once the digging stops. For now the arithmetic is the oldest and cruelest kind: how many are still alive under the stone, and whether anyone can reach them across the broken roads before the mountain cold and the passing hours decide it.

INDIA

The G20 comes to Delhi, and India stages its arrival as a power that convenes the world

India hosted the leaders of the G20 in New Delhi on September 9 and 10 and used the summit as a two-day advertisement for itself as a rising power and a voice for the Global South. Against expectations, it brokered a consensus declaration that all members, including Russia and China's delegations, signed, papering over Ukraine with language vague enough for everyone. It admitted the 55-nation African Union as a permanent member, a genuine shift in who gets a seat. And it announced, with the United States, Saudi Arabia and the European Union, a planned rail-and-shipping corridor linking India through the Middle East to Europe, an answer to China's Belt and Road. Chinese president Xi Jinping stayed away; Russia's Putin, wanted by the ICC, sent his foreign minister. Modi presided under banners that increasingly read "Bharat," the Sanskrit name, feeding a debate about whether the government means to rename the country. The staging was the substance: India wanted the world to see it hosting the world, and the world came.

TECHNOLOGY

A biography reveals a man with his hand on a war's switch

An 800-page biography of Elon Musk, published on September 12, landed early with an extraordinary detail: that Musk had, at a pivotal moment in 2022, quietly restricted Ukraine's access to his Starlink satellite internet near Crimea, disrupting a planned Ukrainian attack on the Russian fleet because he feared being drawn into a wider war. The account, which Musk disputed in part, laid bare a fact the war had obscured: that Ukraine's battlefield communications ran through a network owned and controlled by one private individual, who could throttle them according to his own judgement of geopolitics. A single businessman, accountable to no government, had made himself a party to the war's most sensitive decisions by owning the infrastructure both sides had come to depend on.

IN BRIEF

Burning Man drowns; a strike looms; two champions in New York

Tens of thousands were stranded for days at the Burning Man festival in the Nevada desert when rare, heavy rain turned the playa to impassable mud in early September, an irony not lost on anyone. America's autoworkers moved toward a strike against all three Detroit carmakers at once, their contracts expiring September 14, with artificial intelligence and the transition to electric vehicles, which needs fewer workers to build, hanging over the talks. And in New York, tennis crowned two champions: on September 9 the 19-year-old American Coco Gauff won her first US Open, and on September 10 Novak Djokovic won his, a 24th Grand Slam singles title that drew him level with the all-time record and, at 36, answered the young Spaniard who had beaten him at Wimbledon.

The Column

The two arrivals

The G20 was staged to show a country arriving. Watching from inside it, the question that pressed was not whether India has arrived but by which measure, because there are two definitions of a nation's arrival, and they point in different directions.

India hosted the world this fortnight, and the summit was staged, unmistakably, as an announcement: that India has arrived, that the world's most populous nation has taken its place among the powers, that the century has an Indian dimension now. Watching from inside the country, amid the pride that is real and earned, the question that pressed on me was not whether the announcement is true but which of two very different things it is announcing, because there are two definitions of a nation's arrival, and the summit's grammar quietly chose one of them, and the choice is worth examining.

The economist Amartya Sen, an Indian who spent his life on exactly this question, drew the distinction that the summit obscured. There is arrival measured in the aggregate metrics of power, the size of the economy, the reach of the influence, the seat at the table, the gross national product that a summit is designed to display. And there is arrival measured in what Sen called capabilities, the substantive freedoms actually enjoyed by real people, whether a citizen can read, eat, receive care when ill, breathe clean air, live free of the arbitrary, whether the least of the nation's people command the real freedoms that development is supposed to be for. Sen's argument, made across decades and against the grain of a development economics obsessed with GDP, was that these two measures can diverge sharply, that a nation can arrive spectacularly by the first while lagging badly by the second, and that a country which mistakes the aggregate for the substantive has confused the display of development with the thing itself.

Let me put the counterargument fairly, because the aggregate is not nothing and Sen never said it was. The economic power a summit displays is real, and it matters: it is the aggregate growth that funds the schools and the clinics and the infrastructure, that lifts hundreds of millions from the poverty that was the defining Indian fact of the last century, that gives the nation the standing to shape a world that will otherwise be shaped without it. The dismissal of aggregate power as mere vanity is a luxury of those who already have it, and India's rise in the hard currency of economic weight is a genuine achievement that has improved real lives at a scale unprecedented in human history. I hold that fully. The aggregate arrival is real, and it is worth the pride.

But the summit's grammar, I noticed, was almost entirely the grammar of the first arrival and almost silent on the second, and the silence is the thing to mark. It displayed the highways and not the freedoms, the growth rate and not the distribution, the nation's weight in the world and not the nation's least citizen's command over her own life, and in doing so it performed the specific confusion Sen spent his life warning against: the treatment of the aggregate as the goal rather than as the means, the celebration of the display of arrival as though it were the arrival of the thing the display was supposed to be for. A summit is a mirror a nation holds up to itself, and this one reflected the India of power, magnificent and real, while the India of capabilities, the vast populations whose substantive freedoms remain thin, stood outside the frame, uncelebrated because uncounted in the metric the summit chose.

So I hold both arrivals, and I decline to let the first crowd out the second, because that crowding-out is precisely how a rising nation loses its way. India has arrived, spectacularly, by the measure of power, and the pride is earned. India has not yet arrived, not remotely, by the measure Sen insisted was the real one, the measure of whether the freedoms that development is for have reached the people development was supposed to serve. The summit displayed the first and was silent on the second, and the danger in the silence is that a nation which learns to measure itself only by the arrival that summits display will pursue that arrival at the expense of the other, will build the highway the world can see and neglect the freedom it cannot, until it has arrived, gloriously, at a destination that was never the point. The world came to India this fortnight, and India showed the world its power. The harder and truer arrival, the one Sen would have asked after, is the one no summit is staged to display, and it is the only one that finally counts.

The Ledger
AI
A fortnight defined by an earthquake and a summit, with AI in the wings: the Musk biography's Starlink revelation is a warning about privately-owned critical infrastructure that applies directly to who will own the AI compute layer. The pattern to watch is single points of private control over things nations depend on.
Data centers & power
The Starlink story is a data-centre story in disguise: it is about what happens when essential digital infrastructure sits in one company's hands. The same question is coming for the AI clouds.
Rates
Ten-year Treasury yields near 4.3 percent and climbing; the market is pricing "higher for longer" in earnest. August inflation data lands next fortnight and will shape the Fed's September meeting.
Real estate
Mortgage rate 7.12 percent (September 7). Unchanged story, worsening slowly: the least affordable housing market in a generation, frozen by owners who cannot give up their old rates.
India tech
The G20 was a showcase for India as a technology and logistics hub; the India-Middle East-Europe corridor, if it is ever built, would route trade the country's ports and software both stand to serve. A big if, on a long horizon.
What we called wrong
Nothing to correct. The column above is, in part, a self-correction of this paper's own habit of covering India either as a rising-power story or a democratic-backsliding story, when it is stubbornly, simultaneously both.
The Back Page

Twenty-four

Novak Djokovic won the US Open on September 10, beating Daniil Medvedev in straight sets for his 24th Grand Slam singles title, equalling the record held by Margaret Court and standing, at 36, statistically alone among the men who have ever played. Two months ago on this page we watched a 20-year-old take Wimbledon from him and wondered aloud whether the guard was changing. It is, eventually; it always does. But Djokovic's answer, delivered in New York with the relentless, joyless precision that has never made him as loved as his rivals and never stopped him beating them, was to point out that eventually is not yet. He wore a shirt with a "24" and a picture of the basketball player Kobe Bryant, who wore that number and was his friend and is dead. He has spent his career as the third man in a story about Federer and Nadal, the villain to their heroes, the one the crowd cheered against, and he has outlasted and out-won both. There is a kind of greatness that arrives on charm and a kind that arrives on sheer refusal, and Djokovic is the purest example the sport has produced of the second. The young ones are coming. He is, still, not done making them wait.