Vol. III, No. 59
Covering 10 March - 23 March 2025
Monday, March 24, 2025
Late edition · A Relentless publication
All the fortnight that mattered, in technology and in the world, read next to what we were building at the time.
WASHINGTON

The president deports men to a foreign prison, a judge says stop, and the administration does not stop

Invoking a wartime law from 1798, the government flew planeloads of Venezuelans to a maximum-security prison in El Salvador. A federal judge ordered the flights turned around. They landed anyway. The question is no longer what the president will do, but whether the courts can still make him stop.

The gravest constitutional confrontation of the new presidency arrived this fortnight, and it arrived over airplanes. Invoking the Alien Enemies Act of 1798, a wartime law used only three times in the nation's history, the administration declared a Venezuelan gang an invading force and, on that basis, flew planeloads of Venezuelan men, many with no criminal record and no hearing, to CECOT, the notorious mega-prison in El Salvador, to be held indefinitely at America's request. A federal judge, learning of the flights while they were in the air, ordered them turned around. They did not turn around; they landed, the men were marched into the Salvadoran prison, and the administration offered a series of evasions, that the order came too late, that it did not apply over international waters, that the judge had no authority, amounting to a single, stark reality: a court had said stop, and the executive had not stopped.

This is the confrontation that the checks-and-balances system exists to prevent and is least equipped to survive: an executive that simply declines to obey the judiciary. The courts have no army; their power rests entirely on the expectation that their orders will be followed, an expectation built over two centuries and now being tested as never before. If the administration can deport men to a foreign dungeon in defiance of a judge's order and face no consequence, then the judicial check, the layer above the executive that can say no, has been revealed as advisory, and the structure that restrains presidential power has a hole in it the size of a runway. The men in CECOT, disappeared into a foreign prison without a hearing, are the immediate victims. The principle at stake, whether any court can still make this president stop, is the one that will determine what the next four years become.

DIPLOMACY

America and Russia talk over Ukraine's head, and a fragile partial truce emerges

The remaking of the Ukraine war continued as Washington and Moscow negotiated its terms largely between themselves. A call between Trump and Putin on March 18 produced a limited agreement to pause attacks on energy infrastructure, a partial and fragile step that fell far short of the full ceasefire Trump had promised, and that was negotiated in a framework where Ukraine and Europe remained more spectators than participants in decisions about their own security. Kyiv, cut off from American intelligence and weapons weeks earlier and desperate to restore the relationship, accepted what it was offered while Europe scrambled to build the capacity to support Ukraine without the American backing it could no longer assume.

IN BRIEF

A strike on Yemen; a jailed rival; a long-delayed homecoming

American forces launched a sustained bombing campaign against the Houthis in Yemen from March 15, in response to the group's continued attacks on Red Sea shipping. In Turkey, President Erdogan had his most formidable political rival, the Istanbul mayor Ekrem Imamoglu, arrested on corruption charges widely seen as a pretext to eliminate a challenger, triggering the largest protests in a decade. And two NASA astronauts, Butch Wilmore and Suni Williams, finally returned to Earth on March 18 after more than nine months stranded aboard the International Space Station, a mission meant to last eight days extended into an odyssey by the failure of the Boeing spacecraft that had carried them up.

The Column

Whose rights were ever more than a promise

A court ordered the president to stop, and he did not stop, and men were delivered to a foreign prison beyond the reach of any judge. The lesson is not that a right was violated. It is that a right is a promise an institution keeps, and the first people to learn it was only ever a promise are always the ones outside the circle of concern.

The administration put men on planes to a prison in another country this fortnight, a judge ordered the planes turned around, and the planes were not turned around, and the men are now in a place no American court can reach. Much of the commentary has treated this as a violation of the men's rights, which it is, but that framing quietly assumes the thing the episode disproves: that the men had rights in the operative sense, rights that existed as something more than words on paper, right up until the moment the words were tested against power and found to be only words. What this fortnight revealed is not that a possessed right was taken. It is that a right is never a possession. It is a promise, and a promise is worth exactly the willingness of some institution to keep it.

Hannah Arendt, who had been stateless herself, arrived at the hardest formulation in political thought on this question, and our fortnight is its grim confirmation. Watching the twentieth century strip millions of people of their nationality and then discover that "human rights," those supposedly inalienable possessions of every person as such, evaporated the instant a person had no state willing to enforce them, she concluded that the fundamental right, the one beneath all the others, is not any particular liberty but the right to have rights at all, meaning membership in a political community that will vouch for you, and that a person expelled from all such community does not retain a thin residue of rights; they discover that the rights were the membership, and without it there is nothing, no floor, no inalienable core, only a human being to whom anything may now be done because no institution has undertaken to prevent it. The men on those planes were being shown across exactly that line, out of the community that promises, into the place where the promise does not reach.

Let me state the objection at its strongest, because it is the objection of everyone who holds the Constitution sacred and finds this argument nihilistic. Rights, they will insist, are real, guaranteed in a written charter, enforced by a genuine and independent judiciary, and to say they are "only promises" is to concede the authoritarian's entire case, that rights are fictions to be overridden by whoever holds power, which is precisely the concession that emboldens him. I understand the fear, and I will answer it plainly: I am not saying rights are fictions. I am saying they are promises, which is a different and more demanding thing, because a fiction requires nothing of us and a promise requires everything. To call a right a promise is not to weaken it; it is to locate the labour it actually depends on, the standing willingness of courts, officials, and ultimately a public to enforce the word against power even when it is costly and unpopular to do so. The danger of the "rights are self-executing possessions" story is that it lets us imagine the Constitution defends itself, and so lulls us to sleep precisely when the promise is being tested and needs defenders awake.

I hold this not as theory but as inheritance. My people have always understood, because we were never permitted the luxury of forgetting, that the same charter which guarantees everyone equal protection delivers it by a hidden criterion, that whether the promise is kept to you depends on whether the society believes, beneath its stated creed, that you are the kind of person the promise is for. I grew up knowing that a right announced universally is enforced selectively, that the gap between the promise and the keeping is where whole categories of people live, and that this gap is not a flaw in the system awaiting repair but a permanent feature managed by the question of who counts. So when I watch men delivered beyond the reach of the courts while a judge's order is simply ignored, I do not see an aberration in a system of secure rights. I see the mechanism made visible, the promise being openly declined for a category deemed outside concern, exactly as it has always been declined, only now without the courtesy of pretext.

And that is why this matters far beyond the men on the planes, and why the comfortable are wrong to think it a distant cruelty. The promise, once openly broken for the despised, is revealed to be breakable, and a promise revealed as breakable is a promise breaking for everyone, on a delay, in order of the society's concern. The men flown to that prison are not the exception that proves the rights of the rest secure. They are the demonstration that the security of the rest was always a promise too, kept so far because it has not yet been convenient to break, and the distance between them and everyone else is measured only in how long the circle of concern holds, and this fortnight it got smaller.

The Ledger
AI
A quieter fortnight for AI amid the constitutional and diplomatic storms. The models advance; the deeper question of whether the institutions that might govern them can even enforce their own orders looms over everything.
Data centers & power
The AI build-out proceeds beneath the political turmoil, its power demands undiminished; the trade chaos, though, threatens the global supply chains the data centres depend on.
Rates
Market volatility deepens as the tariff threat looms; the Fed holds, increasingly a spectator to political shocks that its tools cannot address. Recession odds climb.
Real estate
US 30-year mortgage 6.67 percent (March 20). The domestic market becalmed while the constitutional order convulses, a strange normalcy in the housing data amid the tumult.
India tech
India watches the American rule-of-law crisis with the wariness of a country whose own courts' independence is a live question; the health of judicial checks, everywhere, is part of what makes a country a stable place to build and invest.
What we called wrong
Nothing to retract. The column extends this paper's long meditation on "the layer that can say no": a check is only real if its no is obeyed, and this fortnight, for the first time in the new presidency, a judicial no was, it appears, simply ignored.
The Back Page

Home, after nine months

They went up for eight days and came home after nine months. Butch Wilmore and Suni Williams, two veteran NASA astronauts, launched last summer on the first crewed test of Boeing's new Starliner spacecraft, a mission planned to last a little over a week. Then the Starliner developed thruster problems and helium leaks, and NASA judged it too risky to bring them home in, and sent it back empty, and the two astronauts, who had packed for eight days, found themselves residents of the International Space Station for the better part of a year, waiting for a ride. They took it with the unflappable good humour that is the astronaut's stock in trade, folded themselves into the station's routines, did the science, waited. And this fortnight, at last, a SpaceX capsule brought them down, splashing into the Gulf off Florida after 286 days in orbit, carried out of the capsule on stretchers as their bodies readjusted to a gravity they had not felt since last spring. It became, inevitably, a political football, whose fault, who to blame, and there is a real story there about Boeing's troubles and a space programme's dependencies. But strip that away and it is, at heart, a small human epic: two people who went up for a week, got stranded by a machine that failed, and spent nine months in the great silence above the world, doing their jobs, trusting that a way home would come, and this fortnight it did. They are back. The eight-day mission took nine months. They never once, in public, complained.