Vol. III, No. 64
Covering 19 May - 1 June 2025
Monday, June 2, 2025
Late edition · A Relentless publication
All the fortnight that mattered, in technology and in the world, read next to what we were building at the time.
UKRAINE

Smuggled drones destroy Russia's bombers, a thousand miles from the front

In an operation of audacity and cunning, Ukraine hid cheap drones inside trucks deep within Russia and unleashed them against airbases across the country, destroying strategic bombers worth billions. It was a demonstration of a new kind of war, and of how vulnerable the mighty have become to the small.

Ukraine carried out one of the most audacious military operations of the war on June 1, striking Russian strategic bombers at airbases thousands of kilometres from the front, some in Siberia, in an attack it had reportedly planned for 18 months. The method was as significant as the result: Ukraine had smuggled scores of small, cheap first-person-view drones deep into Russia, concealed inside the roofs of shipping containers carried on ordinary trucks, and, at a signal, opened the container roofs and launched them at the airbases beside which the trucks had been parked, destroying or damaging, Kyiv claimed, dozens of aircraft, including the nuclear-capable strategic bombers that Russia uses to fire cruise missiles at Ukrainian cities and cannot easily replace, since their production lines closed decades ago.

The strategic damage was real, but the deeper significance was conceptual. Ukraine had used drones costing perhaps a few thousand dollars each to destroy aircraft worth tens or hundreds of millions, that Russia cannot rebuild, in an attack that required no expensive missiles, no air force, no penetration of Russia's air defences, only cunning, patience, and the exploitation of the fact that a modern military's most valuable assets are few, expensive, concentrated, and increasingly vulnerable to the cheap and the many. It was the pager attack's cousin: a demonstration that in the age of cheap drones and long planning, the small can reach the mighty in their most protected sanctuaries, and that concentrating enormous value in a handful of irreplaceable assets, parked in rows on an airfield, is a vulnerability that a few thousand dollars of ingenuity can now exploit catastrophically.

THE ECONOMY

The courts and the president wrestle over the tariffs, and a partnership at the top ends

The legal fight over Trump's tariffs intensified as a federal trade court ruled on May 28 that the president had exceeded his authority in imposing his sweeping "Liberation Day" levies under emergency powers, only for an appeals court to stay the ruling a day later, leaving the tariffs in place amid deepening legal uncertainty over whether the entire edifice was even lawful. And the most consequential partnership of the new administration frayed: Elon Musk stepped back from his role slashing the federal government, his tumultuous tenure at the so-called Department of Government Efficiency ending amid signs of strain with the president and mounting political damage to his companies.

IN BRIEF

A war on the universities; a nationalist wins in Warsaw; hunger in Gaza

The administration escalated its assault on higher education, moving to bar Harvard from enrolling international students, a step blocked by the courts but chilling to the hundreds of thousands of foreign scholars whose place in America suddenly felt conditional. Poland elected a nationalist, Karol Nawrocki, as president on June 1, a blow to its centrist government and a further sign of the rightward, nationalist drift across Europe. And in Gaza, the humanitarian catastrophe deepened toward famine, as a new and chaotic aid-distribution system, backed by Israel and the United States, produced deadly crushes and shootings at the few distribution points serving a starving population.

The Column

The cheap and the many

Ukraine destroyed Russia's irreplaceable bombers with drones costing a few thousand dollars each. It is the clearest lesson yet of an age in which concentrated value is a fatal vulnerability, and it applies far beyond war.

The Ukrainian drone operation this fortnight was a masterpiece of planning, and I want to extract from it a lesson that reaches far beyond the battlefield, because it is the sharpest illustration yet of a shift this paper has tracked in many forms: the growing, dangerous vulnerability of concentrated, expensive, irreplaceable assets to cheap, distributed, expendable threats. Russia had a small number of strategic bombers, each one enormously expensive, impossible to replace because the factories that built them are long closed, parked in neat rows on a handful of airfields. Ukraine had a large number of drones, each one costing about as much as a used car. And the many cheap things destroyed the few expensive ones, not through superior force but through the exploitation of a structural weakness: that all of Russia's enormous value was concentrated in a few fragile, irreplaceable baskets, and defending every basket against a threat that can come from anywhere, cheaply, is nearly impossible.

This is the inverse of how military and economic power has traditionally worked, and the reversal is the point. For most of history, the expensive and the concentrated beat the cheap and the distributed: the tank beat the infantry, the battleship ruled the sea, the big expensive thing won because it could bring overwhelming force to bear. The drone age inverts this. When a three-thousand-dollar drone can destroy a hundred-million-dollar aircraft, when a smuggled charge can maim a militia, when the cheap and the many can reliably reach and destroy the expensive and the few, then concentrating your value in a small number of expensive, irreplaceable assets stops being strength and becomes fragility, because you have created a small number of high-value targets that a cheap, distributed adversary can pick off, and you cannot defend all of them, everywhere, all the time, against a threat that costs almost nothing to mount.

And here is why it matters far beyond the battlefield, because the same structural logic is everywhere in the modern world. The company whose entire operation depends on a few irreplaceable systems, or a few irreplaceable people, has concentrated its value the way Russia concentrated its bombers, into a small number of baskets that a cheap disruption, a resignation, an outage, a single failure, can destroy. The infrastructure that routes the world's traffic through a handful of chokepoints, the supply chain that depends on a few critical nodes, the platform that everything is built on, all are concentrations of value that were efficient in a stable world and are catastrophic vulnerabilities in a world where cheap, distributed threats can reach them. The lesson of the drones is the lesson of the pagers and the bridge and the CrowdStrike outage, sharpened: in an age of cheap and distributed disruption, concentration is fragility, and the resilient are not the ones with the biggest, most expensive assets but the ones whose value is distributed enough that no single cheap blow can destroy it.

The strategic response, for a military or a business or a system, is the same and it is unglamorous: distribute what you cannot afford to lose. Do not park all your bombers on one airfield; do not build your entire operation on one system, one person, one supplier, one chokepoint. Accept the inefficiency of redundancy, the cost of spreading your value across many baskets rather than concentrating it in a few expensive ones, because in a world where the cheap and the many can reach the expensive and the few, the concentration that looks like strength is the vulnerability that a few thousand dollars of ingenuity, or a single bad day, can exploit catastrophically. Russia learned it this fortnight, watching its irreplaceable bombers burn on airfields it thought were safe because they were far from the front. The front, it turns out, is now everywhere, and the cheap and the many can reach you anywhere, and the only defence is to have made yourself, in advance, too distributed to be destroyed by a single cheap blow. Concentration was strength. Now it is the target.

The Ledger
AI
The drone operation is, among other things, an AI-and-autonomy story: cheap, smart, distributed drones are reshaping warfare exactly as this paper has warned cheap distributed threats reshape everything. The concentration of value in expensive assets is a vulnerability the age of cheap autonomy exploits.
Data centers & power
The concentration lesson applies directly to the AI build-out: half-trillion-dollar data centres are exactly the kind of expensive, concentrated, hard-to-defend assets the drone age makes vulnerable. Physical security of the AI infrastructure is a question no one is asking loudly enough.
Rates
The tariff legal chaos adds another layer of uncertainty; markets whipsaw on each court ruling. The Fed holds, navigating a fog in which even the legality of the central economic policy is unresolved.
Real estate
US 30-year mortgage 6.89 percent (May 29). Range-bound amid the uncertainty; the domestic market becalmed while the world convulses.
India tech
The concentration lesson resonates for India's technology sector, whose value increasingly sits in a few large firms and a few key client relationships; distribution and resilience, not just scale, are the strategic questions the drone age poses to everyone.
What we called wrong
Nothing to retract. The drone column sharpens this paper's oldest structural argument: concentration, efficient in a stable world, is fatal fragility in a world of cheap, distributed disruption, whether the concentrated asset is a bomber, a bank, or a business.
The Back Page

The scholars in the crossfire

Lost in the fight between the administration and Harvard this fortnight were the people it actually threatens: the hundreds of thousands of international students who have built their lives, their studies, their futures around the promise that America welcomed the world's talent. A graduate student from Mumbai three years into a doctorate, suddenly unsure if she can finish it. A young researcher from Lagos who moved his family across an ocean on the strength of a visa that now feels revocable at a whim. The undergraduate from Seoul who chose an American university over the ones back home because America was where the future was built, and who now watches that choice curdle into precarity. For generations, the willingness of the world's brightest to come to America to study, and often to stay and build, was one of the country's greatest and least-appreciated advantages, a magnet that drew talent from every nation and turned it into American innovation, American companies, American strength. This fortnight, that magnet was being switched off, or at least made to flicker, as foreign students became pawns in a political war, their futures conditional on a fight that was not about them. Some will leave, for Canada, for Britain, for home, taking with them the talent America spent decades attracting. Others will stay, but warier, having learned that the welcome was conditional after all. The universities will survive the funding fight. What may not survive is the belief, held by a young person in Mumbai or Lagos or Seoul deciding where to build their life, that America is still the place that wants them. That belief took generations to build. It is being spent, this fortnight, in a fight that was never really about them at all.