Vol. IV, No. 80
Covering 29 December 2025 - 11 January 2026
Monday, January 12, 2026
Late edition · A Relentless publication
All the fortnight that mattered, in technology and in the world, read next to what we were building at the time.
CARACAS

American forces capture the president of Venezuela, and the age of open empire returns

In a dawn assault the United States bombed Caracas, seized Nicolás Maduro, and flew him to a New York jail. The administration barely troubled to hide the reason: the oil. A superpower has invaded a hemisphere it long claimed to have outgrown.

The United States launched a large-scale military assault on Venezuela on January 3, opening the new year with an act unseen in the hemisphere in a generation: airstrikes on Caracas, an operation the administration named Southern Spear, and the capture of the country's president, Nicolás Maduro, along with his wife, Cilia Flores, who were seized and flown to New York, where Maduro pleaded not guilty on January 5 to charges of drug trafficking and narcoterrorism and was held for a court appearance in March. The strikes killed at least a hundred people, among them dozens of Cuban personnel and Venezuelan military, and the country's vice-president, Delcy Rodríguez, was sworn in as acting president, Venezuela's first woman to hold the office, presiding over a nation whose head of state had just been carried off by a foreign power.

What distinguished this from the covert regime-changes of the past was the candour. Before the operation, the president and his officials spoke openly of Venezuela's oil, of reviving its industry, of bringing in American companies, so that the war's purpose was not smuggled in behind a humanitarian pretext but stated aloud, as a matter of course, as though the seizure of a sovereign nation's leader and the appropriation of its resources were simply the prerogative of the strong. Maduro was, by any honest account, a brutal ruler who had wrecked his country and driven a quarter of its people into exile, and few will mourn his rule. But the manner of his removal, a superpower reaching into the hemisphere to bomb a capital, seize a head of state, and speak frankly of the oil it would take, announced something larger than one dictator's fall: the return, undisguised, of open empire, of the naked doctrine that the powerful may take what they want from the weak and need no longer pretend otherwise.

NEW YORK

A socialist takes the largest city, as the powers gather their forces

Zohran Mamdani was sworn in as mayor of New York City on January 1, the democratic socialist who stunned the establishment now governing America's largest city, a striking counterpoint, at the level of a single metropolis, to the imperial turn in Washington. The contrast framed the fortnight: at the centre, an administration seizing foreign leaders and speaking of oil and annexation; in the country's greatest city, a young man elected on the price of rent and groceries. Meanwhile the administration signalled its next target, massing a convoy of military assets toward Iran, which the president said was moving "just in case," even as he professed a preference not to strike, while Iran's regime cracked down on the nationwide protests over economic collapse that had filled its streets since the new year.

IN BRIEF

A currency, a withdrawal, a challenger, a tragedy

Bulgaria adopted the euro on January 1, becoming the twenty-first member of the eurozone. The United States announced on January 7 that it would withdraw from numerous United Nations bodies, including climate and population agencies, deepening its retreat from the international institutions it built. China's BYD overtook Tesla as the world's largest electric-vehicle maker, selling 2.26 million cars in 2025 to Tesla's 1.64 million, a milestone in the shifting balance of the industries of the future. And a bar explosion in the Swiss resort of Crans-Montana on New Year's Day killed forty-one people and injured more than a hundred, a horror to open the year.

The Column

The empire that stopped pretending

The United States seized a foreign president this fortnight and spoke openly of taking his country's oil. The commentary calls the candour refreshing. I come from the part of the world that has lived under both the lies of empire and its honesty, and I can tell you which is more dangerous, and why.

The United States has always been an empire that told itself it was not one, and this fortnight it stopped bothering with the story. It bombed a capital, seized a head of state, flew him to a cell in New York, and spoke, before and after, plainly and without embarrassment, of the oil it intended to take. A striking amount of the commentary has treated this candour as almost bracing, a clarifying honesty after decades of humanitarian pretext, and I want to argue the opposite: that the honesty of empire is more dangerous than its hypocrisy, not less, and that the relief being expressed at the dropping of the mask is a profound misreading of what the mask was for.

Judith Shklar, who built a political philosophy around the ordinary vices and thought harder than almost anyone about hypocrisy, warned against the easy anti-hypocrisy that treats the unmasking of pretence as automatically virtuous, the posture that says at least now we know where we stand. Shklar's insight, drawing on a line as old as La Rochefoucauld, who called hypocrisy the tribute vice pays to virtue, was that hypocrisy, however contemptible, contains a hidden concession of enormous value: the hypocrite, by troubling to lie, admits that the truth would be unacceptable, and thereby acknowledges the authority of the standard he is violating. The hypocrite who cloaks conquest in the language of freedom is conceding that conquest needs cloaking, that the principle of freedom still holds enough power over him that he must pretend to serve it, and that concession, thin as it is, is a lever, because a power that still feels obliged to lie about its crimes can still be shamed by the gap between its words and its deeds. The power that stops lying has removed the lever. It has announced that the standard no longer holds any authority over it at all.

The counterargument is genuinely attractive and I felt its pull before I thought it through: is not honesty better than lies, even from an empire? Is not the candid avowal of interest more respectable, more possible to reckon with, than the nauseating pretence of humanitarian mission under which so many of the last century's worst crimes were committed? Would we not rather deal with a power that says plainly what it wants than one that drapes its greed in the language of our own liberation, adding insult to injury and gaslighting to theft? I understand the appeal, and I hold no brief for the humanitarian lie, which was often more murderous than any honest conquest because it demanded that its victims be grateful. But the choice being offered, between the honest empire and the hypocritical one, is a trap, because it invites us to prefer the one that has stopped pretending, when the pretence was the last remaining evidence that principle retained any hold on power at all. To welcome the candour is to celebrate the removal of the only constraint the situation still contained.

I say this from a specific inheritance, and it is not neutral of me. My people have lived under both faces of empire, the hypocritical and the honest, across a long and bloody education, and I will not pretend the hypocrisy was benign, because the talk of freedom and democracy and protection accompanied real bombs and real occupations and demanded, on top of everything, that we applaud. But I learned to see that the obligation to lie was also the one thing we could use, the gap we could pry at, the standard we could hold the liar to, because he had, by lying, admitted the standard existed. The honesty removes even that. An empire that announces it takes what it wants because it can, and needs no excuse, has declared that there is no standard to appeal to, no gap to pry at, no shame to invoke, and for the weak, which is most of the world, the disappearance of that appeal is not clarity but catastrophe.

So I do not join the commentators who find the candour refreshing. The clarity is real, and it is the clarity of a threat rather than a confession. It announces a world in which the strong take what they want and dare the weak to invoke a principle the strong have publicly retired, and everyone who is weak should understand exactly what the honesty means: not that the empire has become more truthful, which would be an improvement, but that it has stopped feeling the need to pretend, which is the final stage, the one where even the tribute vice paid to virtue is withdrawn, and power stands unclothed and unashamed, having discovered that it no longer has to pay virtue anything at all. The lie was the last of the principle. This fortnight, over the oil, in Caracas, they stopped paying it, and the applause for their honesty is the sound of the weak mistaking the removal of their last lever for the arrival of the truth.

The Ledger
AI
The AI build-out enters 2026 at a staggering scale, the largest providers committing toward $690 billion in capital spending for the year, nearly double 2025, even as the debate over whether it is a bubble sharpens. The concentration of the economy on this single bet, which this paper flagged at year's end, only deepens.
Data centers & power
The build-out's power hunger becomes a first-order geopolitical fact: an administration that will seize an oil nation and speak of it plainly is an administration that understands energy as the substrate of the AI race. Venezuela's oil and the data centres' demand are, it turns out, the same story.
Rates
Markets opened the year uneasy, weighing the Venezuela shock, the oil-price implications, and an AI-driven economy whose foundations a growing chorus calls precarious. The Fed watches a world where the political shocks now dwarf the economic data.
Real estate
US 30-year mortgage near 6.1 percent to open 2026, low by the standards of the tightening years, in a market still shaped by the gap between old cheap loans and new.
India tech
India watches the open turn to empire with the wariness of a country that has built its foreign policy on non-alignment; a world where the strong seize the weak and announce it is a world that vindicates Delhi's refusal to depend on any patron.
What we called wrong
Nothing to retract; the Venezuela seizure is the culmination of the Maduro confrontation this paper tracked through the autumn, arrived at more nakedly than even our warnings anticipated.
The Back Page

The kid takes City Hall

On the first day of the year, while Washington prepared to seize a foreign president, a thirty-four-year-old democratic socialist named Zohran Mamdani was sworn in as the mayor of New York City, and this paper, which marked his primary upset in the summer and his election in the autumn, records the completion of the arc with a note of something like wonder. A year ago he was a state legislator almost no one had heard of; now he governs the largest, most complex, most ungovernable city in America, elected on nothing but the relentless insistence that ordinary life had become too expensive and that a politics which would not address the rent and the groceries deserved to lose. He may fail; the job breaks people, and a hostile federal government has already promised to move against him. But on a day when the country's centre was busy with empire, its greatest city inaugurated a young man who talked only about the cost of living, and there is a lesson in the juxtaposition that both parties should sit with: that while the powerful reach outward for oil and glory, the people, when finally given someone who spoke to their actual lives, chose him, and that the distance between what the powerful pursue and what the people need has rarely been so nakedly on display as it was on the first day of this hard new year.