Vol. II, No. 36
Covering 22 April - 5 May 2024
Monday, May 6, 2024
Late edition · A Relentless publication
All the fortnight that mattered, in technology and in the world, read next to what we were building at the time.
AMERICA

The war comes to the campuses, and the tents go up, and then the police move in

Gaza protests spread across American universities, from Columbia to campuses nationwide, in encampments that divided students, alarmed donors, and ended, mostly, with riot police and mass arrests.

A wave of protest against the war in Gaza swept American universities over the fortnight, beginning at Columbia, where students pitched an encampment on the main lawn demanding their university divest from companies tied to Israel, and spreading to dozens of campuses coast to coast. The encampments became the spring's defining domestic drama: earnest and disciplined in some places, ugly and menacing in others, with genuine anti-war protest tangled up with incidents of antisemitism that frightened Jewish students and gave the movement's critics their most powerful ammunition. University administrators, caught between free-expression principles, donor fury, faculty divisions and their own students, mostly chose, in the end, to call the police. At Columbia, officers cleared an occupied building on May 1; nationwide, more than 2,000 people were arrested. The scenes, students in plastic cuffs, faculty tackled, graduations cancelled, became a potent image in an election year, and a Rorschach test onto which every faction projected its own certainty about who the villains were.

MARKETS

The Fed rules out the thing everyone feared, and the economy keeps confounding

The Federal Reserve held interest rates steady on May 1 and, importantly, Jerome Powell explicitly ruled out the next move being a rate rise, calming a market that had begun to fear that stubborn inflation might force the Fed to tighten again. Then, on May 3, the April jobs report came in cooler than expected, 175,000 jobs, a welcome sign of an economy easing gently rather than either overheating or cracking. Together the two pieces of news revived the soft-landing story that sticky inflation had dented: not the rate cuts markets wanted, not yet, but the reassurance that the painful tightening is over and the economy is cooling on schedule rather than breaking.

IN BRIEF

India votes on through the heat; Rafah looms; a partnership's first act alone

India's marathon election ground through its middle phases in a brutal heatwave, with temperatures topping 44 degrees in parts of the country and turnout a persistent worry as voters and poll workers alike battled the sun. Israel massed forces near Rafah, the last refuge of more than a million displaced Gazans, over American warnings against a full assault, as ceasefire-and-hostage talks flickered and failed. And in Omaha, Warren Buffett presided over the annual Berkshire Hathaway meeting on May 4 for the first time without his partner of six decades, Charlie Munger, who died in November; the empty chair beside him was its own quiet headline.

The Column

The students would not be quiet

The encampments ended under riot police, narrated as a story of antisemitism and menace. That narration was not a description of the protests. It was the instrument used to destroy them, and I have watched this instrument used on my own people my whole life.

The tents came down under riot police this fortnight, and the encampments have been narrated almost entirely in a single vocabulary: antisemitism, intimidation, the campus made unsafe. I want to examine that vocabulary rather than swallow it, because it is being offered as a description of what the protests were, and it was in truth the instrument used to destroy them, and the distance between those two things is the whole of what this fortnight was about.

Let me say first what I concede, because I will not build an argument on a denial. Antisemitism is real, it is a genuine evil, and it exists on the left as everywhere else; among tens of thousands of protesters there were individuals who crossed from opposing a state's war into something uglier, and a movement that will not name and expel that ugliness in its own ranks fails both its cause and the many Jewish students marching inside it, who oppose this war as fiercely as anyone and deserve better than to be conscripted, by their own last name, into the case for a slaughter they are protesting. I hold that without hedging, and I have said it to comrades who did not want to hear it. But naming the real thing is exactly what earns the right to name the larger one: that the charge of antisemitism, this fortnight, was overwhelmingly not a response to that marginal hatred. It was a weapon, deployed deliberately and at scale, to convert a mass protest against the killing of my people into a story about the discomfort of the people who preferred not to hear about it, and thereby to make the protest itself unspeakable.

Here I reach not for a theorist but for a letter, written from a jail cell in 1963 by a man now safely carved into the national mythology, who observed that the great obstacle to justice was never the outright bigot but the moderate, more devoted to order than to justice, who agreed the cause was just but found the timing wrong, the methods too disruptive, the tone too loud, and who preferred a negative peace, the absence of tension, to a positive peace, the presence of justice. King wrote that about people who applauded him in principle and called the police on him in practice, and every line of it describes the reception of these encampments by the respectable centre that assured the students it shared their concern for Gaza, just not this noise, not this way, not now. The demand that the protest be quiet, orderly, and comfortable was the demand that it be ineffective, and it has been made against every protest the same centre now claims to honour.

The serious objection deserves its hearing, and it is this: real antisemitism did appear, the movement's failure to police its worst edge handed the crackdown its pretext, and a protest that genuinely frightens any student has a problem it must answer. I grant every clause of the premise and refuse the conclusion, because watch how the frame is applied, and watch whose fear counts. The failure of a margin was used to indict the whole; the conflation of opposing a state with hating a people was performed deliberately, so that a chant against a war became evidence of bigotry; and the tender concern for frightened students was extended with a selectivity that gives away its purpose, because the students who were doxxed, blacklisted, assaulted, stripped of job offers and hunted by trucks carrying their faces and the word terrorist, the Muslim and Arab students whose fear was not metaphorical, were not the students whose safety organised the national response. Their fear was real and it was ignored, because it was not useful to the people invoking safety. A concern for student safety that sees only one kind of frightened student is not a concern for safety. It is a side, wearing safety as a costume.

I have some standing here, and I will use it once. I came of age when my own presence on a campus was itself treated as a security question, when to be visibly Muslim was to be a problem to be managed, when the comfort of everyone else was invoked to constrain me before I had said a word. So I know the instrument from the inside of my own life: the way the safety and feelings of the powerful are made the measure of what the powerless are permitted to say, the way a demand for justice is reliably re-described as a threat the moment it grows loud enough to cost something. That is what was done to these students, and the fact that it was done in the name of fighting antisemitism, a real evil that deserves better than to be spent as a tactic, only makes it more corrosive, because it burns the credibility of the charge for the day it is genuinely needed.

So I will not join the chorus that has decided the lesson of this fortnight is that the students went too far. Some individuals did, and the movement should say so itself, unprompted, because it is right and because the cause deserves discipline. But the students, in the main, did the thing that every generation is told not to do and later honoured for doing: they refused to be quiet about a mass killing their own institutions were funding and their own government was arming, and they paid the standard price for it, which is to have their protest renamed as hatred by the people who could not answer it. They were right to refuse to be quiet. The naming of their refusal as bigotry is the oldest way there is of declining to hear what a protest is actually saying, and a century from now it will be the students, and not the batons, that this fortnight is remembered for.

Field Notes
A Relentless build, told plainly

Building the layer that lets a business see itself, and why the dashboard is the last thing you build, not the first

This fortnight's front page is full of institutions reacting badly to things they should have seen coming. Here is the humbler engineering of helping an organisation actually see itself clearly, and the counterintuitive lesson about where the seeing has to start. No client is named.

Every executive wants a dashboard. It is the most requested thing in my line of work, and the request always sounds the same: give me a single screen where I can see how the business is doing, the numbers, the trends, the health of the thing, at a glance. And for a large operation I built exactly that, an analytics and reporting layer that turned a company's scattered data into decisions its leaders could actually make, and it measurably improved how well and how fast those decisions got made, on the order of thirty percent by the measures we tracked. But the thing I learned building it is worth setting down, because it is the opposite of what everyone expects, and it is the reason most dashboards are worse than useless.

The lesson is this: the dashboard is the last thing you build, not the first, and an organisation that starts with the dashboard is building a beautiful screen on top of a swamp. Because a dashboard is only ever as truthful as the data underneath it, and in most organisations the data underneath is a mess, inconsistent, duplicated, entered differently by different teams, defined differently in different systems, so that the tidy number on the executive's screen is an average of contradictions, a confident summary of information that does not actually agree with itself. Build the dashboard first, on that foundation, and you have not given the leadership sight. You have given them false confidence, a green light assembled from data that would turn red if anyone looked underneath it, which is exactly the Post Office trap this paper wrote about in the winter: a number, trusted because it is on a screen, that no one can or will audit.

So the real work, the unglamorous nine-tenths of it, is underneath. Before the dashboard, you have to make the data mean the same thing everywhere: agree on what a "customer" is, what "revenue" counts, when a thing is "closed," and enforce those definitions at the point the data is entered, not paper over them in the report. You have to find and fix the places where two systems disagree about the same fact, and decide which is the source of truth, and make everything else defer to it. Only when the foundation is solid, when the number on the screen can be traced back through clean, consistent, auditable data to the real events it summarises, only then do you build the dashboard, and only then is it worth having. The seeing has to start at the bottom, in the boring plumbing of definitions and data quality, and work up. The screen is the reward for doing the invisible work, not a substitute for it. An organisation that cannot see itself clearly is almost never suffering from a lack of dashboards. It is suffering from a foundation that does not agree with itself, and no screen, however beautiful, can show you a truth your data does not contain.

The Ledger
AI
A political fortnight, with AI in the wings; the big assistant launches are loading for mid-May. The Field Notes lesson above, that trustworthy output requires trustworthy foundations, is about to matter enormously as businesses race to build on models they cannot audit.
Data centers & power
Quiet; earnings season will refresh the numbers. The power reckoning waits.
Rates
The Fed rules out a hike and April jobs cool: the soft landing is back in favour. Cuts still expected, now likely in the autumn. Patience, extended again.
Real estate
US 30-year mortgage 7.22 percent (May 2), near the year's high. Frozen solid. Affordability the worst in a generation as the spring season passes with rates elevated.
India tech
The election's middle phases pass in dangerous heat, a reminder that the climate story and the democracy story increasingly share a calendar. The data-quality discipline in this issue's Field Notes is, again, exactly the reliable-engineering reputation India's services sector can own.
What we called wrong
Nothing to retract. The Field Notes above quietly reinforce the Post Office lesson from No. 29: a number trusted because it is on a screen, built on data no one audited, is the same failure at every scale.
The Back Page

The empty chair

For sixty years, the annual meeting of Berkshire Hathaway in Omaha featured two men on a stage: Warren Buffett, and beside him his partner Charlie Munger, who died in November at 99. Munger was the quieter of the two, the one who would answer a rambling question with a single dry sentence and then say "I have nothing to add," which became such a running joke that the crowd waited for it. He was the intellectual conscience of the partnership, the one who talked Buffett out of cheap-and-broken businesses and into wonderful-and-expensive ones, a change of philosophy that made much of the fortune. This May, for the first time, Buffett sat on that stage alone, or rather beside an empty chair, and the tens of thousands who make the pilgrimage to Omaha every year felt the absence like a physical thing. Buffett is 93. He spoke, as he always does, with humour and clarity for hours, and he referred to his friend in the present tense more than once, and caught himself, and did not always correct it. There is a particular grief in outliving the person you thought in tandem with for sixty years, the one who finished your sentences and disagreed with you productively and made you better by refusing to simply agree. Buffett has spent a career teaching the world about compounding. The thing that compounds most, and that no amount of it can buy back, is a partnership like that one, and the empty chair beside him said it more plainly than any letter to shareholders ever could.