Vol. II, No. 38
Covering 20 May - 2 June 2024
Monday, June 3, 2024
Late edition · A Relentless publication
All the fortnight that mattered, in technology and in the world, read next to what we were building at the time.
NEW YORK

A jury convicts a former president of 34 felonies, and the country discovers it does not know what happens next

Donald Trump became the first former American president convicted of a crime. He is also the presumptive nominee of his party, leading in the polls, and free to run. The law reached a verdict the politics has no idea how to hold.

A Manhattan jury found Donald Trump guilty on May 30 of all 34 felony counts of falsifying business records, to conceal a hush-money payment to an adult-film actress in the closing days of the 2016 campaign, making him the first former president of the United States ever convicted of a crime. The verdict, reached after two days of deliberation at the end of a six-week trial, was total: guilty on every count. Trump, who sat glowering through weeks of testimony about a world of tabloids and payoffs, called it a rigged, political prosecution and walked out to the cameras unbowed. Sentencing was set for July, days before the Republican convention that will formally nominate him.

And then the country confronted the thing it had no script for: nothing, constitutionally, stops a convicted felon from running for or serving as president. Trump remains the presumptive Republican nominee, remains ahead in several swing-state polls, and his campaign reported raising tens of millions of dollars in the hours after the verdict, his supporters energised rather than deterred. A conviction that in any ordinary political life would be the end became, in this one, a fundraising email. The legal system did precisely what it is designed to do, reached a verdict through due process, twelve jurors, a unanimous finding. The political system, faced with that verdict, simply absorbed it and kept moving, because half the country does not believe it and the Constitution does not care. The law spoke clearly. Whether it matters is now a question only the voters can answer, in November, and the early signs are that the answer may be no.

INDIA

The largest election ends, the exit polls promise a landslide, and the country waits to see if they are right

India's six-week general election concluded on June 1, and the exit polls released that evening predicted a commanding victory for Narendra Modi and his BJP, some forecasting the two-thirds supermajority the party had brazenly targeted with its slogan of "400 seats." Markets surged in anticipation. But India's exit polls have been wrong before, spectacularly, and the only count that matters comes on June 4, when the votes of nearly 650 million people who turned out, in punishing heat, across seven phases, are finally tallied. Until then the country holds a collective breath, the government projecting confidence, the opposition insisting the polls have missed something, and the truth locked in the voting machines for three more days.

IN BRIEF

Mexico's moment; the ANC humbled; Rafah burns; Nvidia's ascent

Mexico elected its first woman president, Claudia Sheinbaum, a climate scientist and protégée of the outgoing populist, in a landslide on June 2. South Africa's African National Congress, the party of Mandela that has governed since apartheid ended, lost its majority for the first time in 30 years in the May 29 election, forced now to share power. In Gaza, an Israeli strike and ensuing fire at a camp for the displaced in Rafah killed dozens on May 26, drawing global condemnation even as Israel pressed its offensive; President Biden laid out a ceasefire proposal on May 31. And Nvidia's relentless rise continued, its value pushing toward $3 trillion on unquenchable demand for its AI chips.

The Column

A verdict is only as strong as the belief that it binds

A jury convicted a former president of thirty-four felonies, and the machinery of politics barely flinched. The lesson is not about one man's guilt. It is that the law commands no army of its own, and works only so long as the powerful are believed to be bound by it.

Thirty-four times a jury of ordinary citizens said guilty this fortnight, to a former and possibly future president, and the remarkable thing was how little the ground moved. The polls held. The party closed ranks. The convicted man raised money off the conviction. And in that non-reaction lies a truth about law that jurisprudence has always known and civics class never teaches: that a verdict is not a force of nature but a shared belief, and that its power over the powerful lasts exactly as long as the belief does, and not one moment longer.

The legal scholar Robert Cover opened his most famous essay with a sentence worth carrying around: no set of legal institutions exists apart from the narratives that locate it and give it meaning; for every constitution there is an epic, for each law a story of what the law means and why we are bound by it. Law, in this understanding, is not fundamentally the statute or the sentence; it is the story a society tells itself about which commands are binding and on whom, and the statute is merely that story written down. A conviction is a speech act that works by being believed, the way money is paper that works by being trusted; and just as a currency can collapse in an afternoon when the belief behind it evaporates while the paper remains physically unchanged, a verdict can be rendered inert not by being overturned but by being widely treated as not mattering, the ink intact, the binding force gone.

Let me put the strongest objection with full force, because it is the objection of everyone who reveres the rule of law and finds this whole line of argument corrosive. The law, they will say, is precisely not mere belief; it is objective, written, procedural, enforced by courts and marshals and prisons that exist whether or not anyone approves, and to reduce it to a story people happen to tell is to hand the cynic his favorite weapon, the claim that law is only power in a wig, which is exactly the claim that authoritarians use to justify ignoring it. I take this seriously, and I share the fear behind it. But I would put it the other way. It is precisely because I revere the rule of law that I insist on naming its true foundation, because a thing you wish to protect you must first see clearly, and the comforting fiction that law enforces itself is what leaves us unprepared for the moment it does not. The marshals and prisons are real, yes, but they too are staffed by people who obey the law only because they believe they must, and the day enough of them, or enough of the public that empowers them, decide that the law does not really bind this particular man, no statute on the books will reach up and enforce itself.

This is not an abstract fear to me, and here I will be personal, because my own people have long lived on the side of the law where its promises were most obviously belief and least obviously binding. I grew up understanding that a right written down is not a right possessed; that the same constitution guarantees everyone equal protection and delivers it selectively; that whether the law protects you or merely claims to depends on whether the society believes, in its gut, that you are the kind of person the law is for. So when I watch a conviction of a powerful man produce a collective shrug, I do not see a technicality. I see the belief that binds the strong being tested in public, and I see how thin it always was, and I know from my own history that when that belief thins, it thins first around the powerful and the despised alike, protecting neither.

So the conviction was necessary and it was right, and it may also turn out to have been a demonstration of the law's limit rather than its reach, and both of those can be true. Twelve citizens did their part perfectly; the story held in that room. The question the fortnight leaves is whether it holds outside it, whether a society still believes that its most powerful man is bound by the same word as its least, because that belief is the entire load-bearing wall, and walls do not announce that they are failing. They simply, one day, are found to have been holding nothing up. The verdict was strong. Whether it binds is not up to the jury. It is up to us, and the early returns are a shrug.

The Ledger
AI
Overshadowed by the verdict and the vote, but Nvidia's march toward $3 trillion is the fortnight's quiet AI headline: the company the entire boom runs through is now among the most valuable on Earth, a bet on a build-out still accelerating.
Data centers & power
Nvidia's valuation is a leading indicator for the power question: every dollar of it implies more chips, more data centres, more load on grids unprepared for it. The reckoning compounds.
Rates
Steady, with markets eyeing an autumn cut. Inflation's descent continues slowly; the economy refuses to break. The soft landing holds into summer.
Real estate
US 30-year mortgage 7.03 percent (May 30). Frozen, patient, waiting on the cut. The spring season closes with affordability near its worst in a generation.
India tech
The exit polls promise a Modi landslide and continuity the markets love; the actual count on June 4 will decide. The technology sector, like everyone, waits to see whether the machines confirm the forecasts or humble them.
What we called wrong
Nothing to retract. The verdict column above extends the fracture this paper first named with the Gaza hospital blast: institutions can still produce authoritative findings; the shared agreement to be bound by them is what is failing.
The Back Page

Thirty years

This fortnight, thirty years and a month after Nelson Mandela was inaugurated as South Africa's first Black president, the party he led lost its majority. The African National Congress, which had governed since apartheid ended in 1994, which is Mandela's party, the party of the liberation struggle, fell below 50 percent of the vote for the first time, punished by an electorate exhausted by corruption, unemployment, and the daily indignity of power cuts that leave the country dark for hours. It will now have to share power. There is a temptation to read this as decline, the fading of a noble movement into ordinary failure, and there is truth in that; the ANC did squander much of its inheritance. But there is another way to see it, and it is the one I prefer. A liberation party that has lost its majority in a free and fair election, and that will accept the result and share power rather than cling to it, is a party that has completed the hardest transition of all: from movement to mere government, from the sacred party of the struggle to just another party the voters can fire. That is not the death of Mandela's dream. It is, in a strange and painful way, its fulfilment: a South Africa normal enough, democratic enough, mature enough, to hold even its founders to account at the ballot box. The voters did to the ANC what democracies are supposed to be able to do to anyone. Thirty years on, that is not nothing. It may be the most Mandela thing of all.